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    For the past several months, China has been making headlines across the world. And not for the usual reasons. In September , China hosted the G20 for the first time. Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski followed up with a trip to Beijing as his first official foreign destination. China seeks to celebrate its economic muscle again in October The renminbi becomes the fifth global currency—joining the United States, European Union, Japanese, and United Kingdom banknotes—to be accepted by the International Monetary Fund as an international reserve asset.

    The renminbi is clearly on the rise. The answer is simple: Internationalization of the renminbi may fundamentally reshape trade and finance with emerging markets around the world, with a particular impact in Latin America. With the renminbi as a global currency, this reality may eclipse previous trends as more businesses trade directly in the renminbi and Chinese-originated investment opens up to new players who prefer RMB-denominated transactions.

    This could be a unique opportunity for Latin America to further diversify its trade and investment partners. But policymakers should recognize the pitfalls that come with a currency around which many questions swirls in global financial markets. Is Latin America ready? This report focuses on the regional ramifications of a globalized renminbi, but clearly, there are implications for the United States as well.

    The potential of a further boost in China-focused investment and commerce, with transactions in the renminbi rather than the dollar, has the potential to come at the expense of US commerce.

    More easily accessible Chinese money must be weighed against the certainty and strong historical fundamentals of the US currency. Clearly, even those outside Latin America should pay close attention. It clearly lays out the path for how this new reality can become an asset for the region, and also the bumps that may exist along the way.

    The China—Latin America relationship has already proven to be highly complex. This publication tackles a topic that is often left to the back pages of financial sections, but should really be front-page news. We are grateful to the many US, Latin American, and Chinese institutions that participated in a May New York City roundtable, whose comments and insights on the topic helped inform our work.

    This report could not come at a more timely moment. Though there is limited insight on the regional implications of an internationalized renminbi, the time to chart the way forward is now. We extend a special thanks to HSBC for the generous support for this initiative, without which this report would not have been possible. Its economic and financial importance in Latin America echoes trends on the global stage. China is now among the three most significant trading partners for the region, eclipsing the European Union EU in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Argentina count China as their top export destination, as well as a major source of imports.

    This is not surprising. Currency internationalization is a natural step in the evolution of a leading economy. It adds credibility to a currency still observed with some skepticism in many parts of the world. To the extent that Chinese authorities undertake additional domestic reforms—in areas including the capital account, financial market, and exchange rate policies—this may give other economies, including Latin American countries, more confidence to use the RMB for trade and finance transactions.

    But the story is not that simple. The Chinese economy continues to be characterized by a high degree of government involvement, including with its exchange rate. This gives pause to the many governments and private businesses who question the possible implications for market behavior. How relevant are these policies to Latin American countries? To encourage this and manage possible liquidity issues, China has already signed currency swap agreements with countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Chile.

    What do these agreements actually mean and what are the risks for businesses that traditionally have depended on trading and investing in dollars? Top international goals under this framework include trade with and investment in emerging markets worldwide, as well as achieving greater economic and financial balance between its developed and emerging market relationships.

    The process of restructuring addresses both changing demographics in China as well as concerns about the middle-income trap. The combination of these twin objectives is intended to support economic restructuring and competitiveness, in addition to reducing currency risks. Major challenges lie ahead for China, and thus for the rest of the world. This reversal marks a different trajectory for the RMB from what happened during the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis—both periods in which the currency strengthened as a safe haven.

    Beyond the important economic and financial factors underpinning RMB internationalization, there is also a major political component. China seeks both greater recognition of its economic significance and a more active role in international economic affairs. SDR inclusion was a major step. China also has its eye on the United States and what will come of its pivot to Asia. In some ways, Chinese involvement in Latin America is an attempt to counterbalance growing US ties with many countries in Asia.

    In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the Chinese government initiated a series of policies that would later define RMB internationalization. These policies aimed at developing three main markets for RMB international use: trade settlement; crossborder investment; and crossborder financial transactions see Figure 1.

    The goal is for countries around the world to be able to trade, receive FDI, and invest in RMB-denominated products including bonds and stocks. For the first time, companies inside and outside of China could engage in commercial transactions imports and exports using the RMB rather than the dollar. But this also posed a challenge. China sought to promote the international use of its currency but without an established market.

    This created a problem. How could companies trade in RMB without either an offshore market beyond China or access to a developed domestic RMB market? Another result is that the RMB can then be offered as an alternative to the dollar, making China an alternative to the International Monetary Fund for countries facing liquidity constraints. But a mechanism was also needed to carry out RMB transactions among a wider pool of participants.

    For this purpose, China agreed to a series of clearinghouse agreements, which allow a designated bank a Chinese bank on the RMB side, with a local or international bank as counterparty to act as a financial intermediary—a middleman between two parties—in local currency operations involving RMB.

    Chile is home to one of the sixteen global clearinghouses that China established. China also began to liberalize its capital account, launching a series of programs allowing foreign investors to conduct operations in RMB-denominated products. Through it, a quota system determines how much each investor—a public or private-sector financial institution—is allowed to invest in the Chinese financial market. As of June , China had provided program licenses to eighteen countries, plus Hong Kong, with a total quota ceiling of almost RMB1.

    It was generally viewed as undervalued, providing an exchange rate advantage for Chinese exports. In reaction to US concerns, for several years prior to the global financial crisis China steadily allowed its currency to appreciate against the dollar and its exchange rate to more closely reflect a basket of currencies.

    This time it depreciated as the dollar appreciated. In an effort to allow greater market determination of the exchange rate, China substantially altered the preexisting system in August This brought an extremely volatile market reaction, with global implications.

    Since then, exchange rate policy has been inconsistent, raising significant concerns around the world. In particular, China has come under pressure for its failure to communicate exchange rate policy directions and for a lack of clarity in the mechanism itself. Over the past decade, use of RMB as a trade currency has increased dramatically. Overall, although the RMB is the fifth most important payment currency in the world, it only accounts for less than 3 percent of global payments for crossborder trade and financial transactions.

    However, the use of the RMB as an investment currency has grown rapidly. Outward direct investment ODI increased dramatically over the past two years. Chinese FDI in the region tends to be directed to cost-intensive natural resource projects, such as mining activities in Peru or constructing a hydropower plant in Ecuador.

    Financial operations is an area where China has yet to develop policies attractive to both domestic and foreign interests. Foreign institutions actually decreased their RMB assets over the past couple of years see Figure 3. This decision can be explained by a shift in market sentiment, questioning the future possibilities of RMB appreciation.

    Latin American countries are not isolated from the impacts of changes in RMB value; a relative RMB appreciation makes it more expensive for Chinese importers to buy commodities from the region. At the same time, loans and bond markets experienced disappointing growth over the past two years.

    This is likely due to the regulatory constraints that worry foreign institutions. There is still a lack of regulatory understanding about whether a company is able to bring the RMB to the offshore market. A knowledge gap is also common among Chinese investors about the issuers and their businesses. An internationalized RMB can be a new opportunity for Latin American countries to diversify their sources of finance—perhaps in the same way that trading relationships have expanded with the rise of China.

    For example, countries and companies can issue RMB-denominated debt, which—depending on prevailing interest rates—may lower their financing costs. This is particularly true for countries with constrained access to the G3 dollar, euro, yen markets, with Venezuela serving as the leading current example. Trade in a local currency offers significant cost savings: It avoids the transaction costs that result from using a third currency, such as the dollar.

    Although China—Latin America trade has decelerated in the past two years, the outlook points to robust commerce, just at a new normal. RMB-denominated trade could provide huge cost savings and a competitive advantage going forward, 14 since China offers a discount to all foreign companies that settle in RMB.

    RMB use may facilitate that growth. Given strong trading links to China, three of the top six economies in the region—Brazil, Argentina, and Chile—will likely lead the charge to put mechanisms in place that allow for greater RMB-denominated operations. RMB use also helps companies tap into the massive Chinese market and a consumer class greater than the United States and EU combined.

    A poll conducted among companies found that lowering transaction costs and accessing new business opportunities are the top reasons why a foreign company engages in RMB operations. However, one potential outcome is an increase in the risk of Chinese investments in Latin America, since less trusted companies without access to international credit in dollars can to start invest.

    This adds extra layers of opacity when a Latin American company is considering an investment offer from a Chinese partner. A separate concern is the political tensions that come with a greater Chinese presence.

    These sorts of tensions have already arisen in Africa, a region where China is the preeminent foreign force today. Still, RMB internationalization was seen initially as an attractive proposition with few drawbacks. Financially distressed Latin American countries, such as Argentina and Venezuela, saw China as not only a major new trading partner but as a new source of investment and finance, often with less demanding conditions attached—in terms of transparency, labor rights, etc.

    This may yet prove to be the case. But major concerns lie ahead.


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